Picks for 2018 – week 17

The last week of the season is particularly hard for the algorithm to predict since so many teams are resting players and many have nothing to play for ahead of the playoffs.  It can predict what teams should win based on records, but it can’t quite “learn” why the spreads do not reflect the records.

PREDICTION PROBABILITY ML FAVORITE LINE RANK LINE
New England Patriots 90% 16 New England Patriots 14 13.5
Kansas City Chiefs 90% 15 Kansas City Chiefs 15 13.5
Seattle Seahawks 89% 14 Seattle Seahawks 13 13.5
Los Angeles Rams 88% 13 Los Angeles Rams 12 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 87% 12 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 14.5
New Orleans Saints 84% 11 New Orleans Saints 10 7.5
Houston Texans 76% 10 Houston Texans 9 6.5
Green Bay Packers 75% 9 Green Bay Packers 11 8
Los Angeles Chargers 74% 8 Los Angeles Chargers 8 -6.5
Baltimore Ravens 73% 7 Baltimore Ravens 5 5.5
Philadelphia Eagles 70% 6 Philadelphia Eagles 7 -6.5
Buffalo Bills 63% 5 Buffalo Bills 3 4
Minnesota Vikings 62% 4 Minnesota Vikings 4 4.5
Atlanta Falcons 59% 3 Atlanta Falcons 1 -1
New York Giants 56% 2 New York Giants 6 6
Indianapolis Colts 51% 1 Indianapolis Colts 2 -3