The last week of the season is particularly hard for the algorithm to predict since so many teams are resting players and many have nothing to play for ahead of the playoffs. It can predict what teams should win based on records, but it can’t quite “learn” why the spreads do not reflect the records.
PREDICTION | PROBABILITY | ML | FAVORITE | LINE RANK | LINE |
New England Patriots | 90% | 16 | New England Patriots | 14 | 13.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 90% | 15 | Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | 13.5 |
Seattle Seahawks | 89% | 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 13 | 13.5 |
Los Angeles Rams | 88% | 13 | Los Angeles Rams | 12 | 10 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 87% | 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 16 | 14.5 |
New Orleans Saints | 84% | 11 | New Orleans Saints | 10 | 7.5 |
Houston Texans | 76% | 10 | Houston Texans | 9 | 6.5 |
Green Bay Packers | 75% | 9 | Green Bay Packers | 11 | 8 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 74% | 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 8 | -6.5 |
Baltimore Ravens | 73% | 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 5.5 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 70% | 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | -6.5 |
Buffalo Bills | 63% | 5 | Buffalo Bills | 3 | 4 |
Minnesota Vikings | 62% | 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 4.5 |
Atlanta Falcons | 59% | 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 1 | -1 |
New York Giants | 56% | 2 | New York Giants | 6 | 6 |
Indianapolis Colts | 51% | 1 | Indianapolis Colts | 2 | -3 |